Let's play a game: Who will reign at the box office?

This is going to be an interesting weekend for films. Three incredibly diverse films — Martin Scorsese’s The Departed starring Leonardo DiCaprio, Matt Damon and Jack Nicholson, they heavily hyped Employee of the Month starring Dane Cook (funny) and Jessica Simpson (funny looking) and The Texas Chainsaw Massacre: The Beginning starring a bunch of people who won’t live to the end of the movie and that guy who screams all of the time (R. Lee Ermey) — will be hitting the big screen, but which will take the top of the box office?
The last Texas Chainsaw Massacre (which starred 7th Heaven’s Jessica Biel and was released in Oct. 2003) debuted at number one with $29 million in box office receipts (the original grossed $30 million during it’s run in 1974) and went on to gross more than $100 million worldwide.
While Biel’s Massacre could be seen as a good indicator for this new beginning, Texas Chainsaw sequels have been dismal at the box office. Texas Chainsaw Massacre 2 (1986) earned a pathetic $8 million and Leatherface: TCM3 earned $5 million and TCM:The Next Generation (1994) which starred Renee Zellweger and Matthew McConaughey before they were famous, took three years to get released in theaters and earned only $141,000 at the box office.
The Departed has a winning combination, or does it? Scorsese is a great director, but his last couple of films have been less than box office gold. The Aviator (2004), also starring DiCaprio, earned $102 million at the box office, but it cost $116 million to make. Profit, zero. Before that, “The Gangs of New York” (which I heard labeled as a ‘hit’ over the weekend) wasn’t a hit in 2002. $97 million to make, $67 million return (OK. To be fair, it earned $190 million worldwide, but that’s with promotional costs, studio splits, payments to international distributors and so on. It probably made money, but not much). Of course, it starred DiCaprio too. You’d think he was a jinx or something, but his 1999 Brining Out The Dead only earned back half of its $32 million budget. In fact, Scorsese’s last real US “hit” was back in 1991 with Cape Fear. Not to say his movies aren’t great, he has made some truly amazing ART, but a Scorsese film doesn’t necessarily mean money-money-money-money (pause) money. His three stars have some loss of luster issues, but this is getting long.
Then there’s Employee of the Month. A year ago I saw Dane Cook on TV, and the first thing I thought was: Who the hell is Dane Cook? He’s funny, really funny, but can he carry a movie? Wait, can he carry a movie with Andy Dick and Jessica Simpson? Simpson has a pretty good track record in films, her one film — the awful remake of The Dukes of Hazzard — did well at the box office ($110 mil worldwide), but it didn’t really show her acting ability. I maintain the humble opinion that she is the less talented sister in the Simpson family. Even after (at least) a month and a half of promotion, Employee of the Month doesn’t look like it has a chance.
I’d love to say The Departed does, but it looks like it’s going to be a nice weekend so all of the adults interested in seeing may be too dead tired from painting the house to venture out. Speaking of dead, I do think the season beckons for a Massacre, and I think weekend theater goers will too.
Here’s my scientific breakdown:
TCM:The Beginning will bring in $25 million and land at number one.
The Departed will bring in around $22 million, landing at number two.
Employee of the Month will be lucky if it brings in $12 and lands at number five after Open Season ($16 mil) and The Guardian ($12.6 mil.).I wouldn’t put any money on it, because if the weather turns bad older moviegoers could push The Departed’s numbers over TCM.